Early Interest Mounts for Hannon Seat
Democrats aim for Nassau, Skelos reaches out to possible replacement
Mon, 27 Apr 2009 12:34:00
At a black-tie fundraiser for the Nassau Democratic Party earlier this month, the guest speaker, Gov. David Paterson (D), confessed that he had one regret about the 2008 elections: Not spending enough money to beat State Sen. Kemp Hannon (R-Nassau).
“He basically said that he was sorry that he couldn’t put the resources behind it,” said Jay Jacobs, the Nassau Democratic Chairman.
Jacobs fought for months to get party leaders to channel funds into the race against Hannon, only to lose out to other closely-watched battles upstate and in Queens.
Even without the money, Hannon was nearly toppled in November by political newcomer Kristen McElroy, a criminal attorney who lost by just 3,030 votes in what has long been seen as a prized Republican stronghold.
Hannon’s Hempstead-dominated district has been growing increasingly diverse over the years as more city residents move to the suburbs, and Democrats now have a slight registration edge.
“Kemp has been vulnerable for a while. I think it just hasn’t broken through into public consciousness just how vulnerable he is,” said a senior Democratic strategist, who was not authorized to discuss the party’s 2010 strategy because Senate leaders were trying to win Republican support for their agenda. “When you come in with that kind of margin, you’re automatically on the target list next time around.”
Democrats believe that any electoral success there will hinge on running up large margins in African-American and Latino sections of the district such as Uniondale and Hempstead Village. And though the Democratic turnout in minority areas in the district was not as high as Democrats expected in 2008, they have been heartened by a subsequent series of electoral successes on the local level, led by Democrat Wayne Hall, who defeated a well-funded Republican opponent, former Mayor James Garner, in the hotly contested race for mayor of Hempstead Village, where a considerable portion of the district’s minority vote is located.
Republicans have been anxious about the shifting demographics in the district as well. Former State Sen. Michael Balboni, a Republican who represented the neighboring district in Nassau before leaving in 2007 to take a job in the Spitzer administration, warned privately for a year and a half that Hannon was in danger, according to Republicans familiar with those conversations. But until a few days before the votes came in last year, few listened.
Now, Republicans are moving early to shore up their prospects in the district, which has become the top Democratic target to extend their majority in 2010. Acknowledging that defending the seat is critical to any plan to swing back control of the Senate, GOP leaders have also begun to question whether Hannon, who has represented the area for more than two decades, can or should survive. Though Hannon has held firm with the leadership that he intends to run again, Senate Minority Leader Dean Skelos is already reaching out to a potential replacement, Mineola Mayor Jack Martins, according to several Republican operatives.
Martins ran a slash-and-burn campaign for Congress against Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (R-Nassau) last year, losing by about 14 percentage points.
Hannon declined to comment for this article. Martins did not return several calls seeking comment.
Democrats, meanwhile, expect to line up a candidate some time after the local elections in 2009, when the party will have to defend its one-seat majority in the Nassau County Legislature.
One of those local Democrats, County Legislator David Mejias, is considered a leading contender for Hannon’s seat. But first he will have to defend his seat in the county legislature, which local Republicans are themselves targeting in their efforts to win back that chamber this November.
McElroy has also expressed interest in mounting a rematch against Hannon, though she said she does not expect to decide until the end of the year. Democratic leaders may want to recruit a seasoned politician with more electoral experience and a better ability to raise money, according to several party strategists.
But if they do go with McElroy, she said, the campaign will come out much stronger and much earlier than last time.
“In 2010, with everything sort of staying the same, with the registration being Democratic, I think people will actually put money into this race,” she said. “I think it’s really going to happen.”
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ABOVE: State Sen. Kemp Hannon is the Democrats’ top target in 2010. Photo by Barry Sloan
“He basically said that he was sorry that he couldn’t put the resources behind it,” said Jay Jacobs, the Nassau Democratic Chairman.
Jacobs fought for months to get party leaders to channel funds into the race against Hannon, only to lose out to other closely-watched battles upstate and in Queens.
Even without the money, Hannon was nearly toppled in November by political newcomer Kristen McElroy, a criminal attorney who lost by just 3,030 votes in what has long been seen as a prized Republican stronghold.
Hannon’s Hempstead-dominated district has been growing increasingly diverse over the years as more city residents move to the suburbs, and Democrats now have a slight registration edge.
“Kemp has been vulnerable for a while. I think it just hasn’t broken through into public consciousness just how vulnerable he is,” said a senior Democratic strategist, who was not authorized to discuss the party’s 2010 strategy because Senate leaders were trying to win Republican support for their agenda. “When you come in with that kind of margin, you’re automatically on the target list next time around.”
Democrats believe that any electoral success there will hinge on running up large margins in African-American and Latino sections of the district such as Uniondale and Hempstead Village. And though the Democratic turnout in minority areas in the district was not as high as Democrats expected in 2008, they have been heartened by a subsequent series of electoral successes on the local level, led by Democrat Wayne Hall, who defeated a well-funded Republican opponent, former Mayor James Garner, in the hotly contested race for mayor of Hempstead Village, where a considerable portion of the district’s minority vote is located.
Republicans have been anxious about the shifting demographics in the district as well. Former State Sen. Michael Balboni, a Republican who represented the neighboring district in Nassau before leaving in 2007 to take a job in the Spitzer administration, warned privately for a year and a half that Hannon was in danger, according to Republicans familiar with those conversations. But until a few days before the votes came in last year, few listened.
Now, Republicans are moving early to shore up their prospects in the district, which has become the top Democratic target to extend their majority in 2010. Acknowledging that defending the seat is critical to any plan to swing back control of the Senate, GOP leaders have also begun to question whether Hannon, who has represented the area for more than two decades, can or should survive. Though Hannon has held firm with the leadership that he intends to run again, Senate Minority Leader Dean Skelos is already reaching out to a potential replacement, Mineola Mayor Jack Martins, according to several Republican operatives.
Martins ran a slash-and-burn campaign for Congress against Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (R-Nassau) last year, losing by about 14 percentage points.
Hannon declined to comment for this article. Martins did not return several calls seeking comment.
Democrats, meanwhile, expect to line up a candidate some time after the local elections in 2009, when the party will have to defend its one-seat majority in the Nassau County Legislature.
One of those local Democrats, County Legislator David Mejias, is considered a leading contender for Hannon’s seat. But first he will have to defend his seat in the county legislature, which local Republicans are themselves targeting in their efforts to win back that chamber this November.
McElroy has also expressed interest in mounting a rematch against Hannon, though she said she does not expect to decide until the end of the year. Democratic leaders may want to recruit a seasoned politician with more electoral experience and a better ability to raise money, according to several party strategists.
But if they do go with McElroy, she said, the campaign will come out much stronger and much earlier than last time.
“In 2010, with everything sort of staying the same, with the registration being Democratic, I think people will actually put money into this race,” she said. “I think it’s really going to happen.”
--
ABOVE: State Sen. Kemp Hannon is the Democrats’ top target in 2010. Photo by Barry Sloan
