In the 20th District, a Test for Paterson, Gillibrand and State GOP
Hints of 2010 races seen in Tedisco-Murphy special election
Tue, 24 Mar 2009 10:02:00
For the GOP, this was to be the moment.
The Democratic tide had finally started to ebb, with the governor’s sinking poll numbers and no way out of the desert of fiscal deficits in sight. A special congressional election in a Republican stronghold pitting a celebrity of the state party against a relative unknown was supposed to be an easy shot at flipping a seat and beginning their comeback.
But according to many upstate Republicans, win or lose, the race between Assembly Minority Leader James Tedisco (R-Saratoga/Schenectady) and businessman Scott Murphy to replace Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) has shown that a party in freefall has not hit bottom yet.
“It’s just clear that across the state Republican voters feel betrayed by the Republican party,” said one GOP insider. “Tedisco may still eke out a victory, but warts have been exposed. People still don’t know what our party represents.”
Republicans have a 70,000-registered-voter advantage in the 20th Congressional district, which curls around Albany and across ten counties upstate. But the district elected Gillibrand twice and came out for Barack Obama in November.
In 2006 and 2008, Republicans attributed Gillibrand’s wins to her opponent’s implosion and the albatross named George Bush that hung around the necks of all of their candidates.
Now, some are wondering if a district that has acted Democratic over a couple of cycles is not, in fact, Democratic. Murphy supporters are hoping so.
“If Scott wins, it just lays the groundwork for more folks to be comfortable with the Democratic Party,” said Doug Forand, the strategist who led the Democratic takeover of the State Senate last year. “It shows that Independents and Republicans who have moved away from the Republican party are joining the Democratic fold and are staying there.”
According to Stuart Rothenberg, publisher of the Rothenberg Political Report, the district is seeing more and more voters who are unaffiliated with either party vote for Democrats.
“I think we probably were mistaken in exaggerating the Republican nature of the district,” Rothenberg said. “If Murphy wins, it will change my thinking looking back, that under Kirsten Gillibrand it went from being a Republican-leaning district to a toss-up, and we are only realizing it now.”
The most recent poll gave a four-point advantage to Tedisco, outside of the margin of error but a far cry from the 21-point advantage the Republican had when the nominations were announced and a further narrowing of the 12-point gap from three weeks before.
Democrats are crowing that if one of their own is able to keep the seat blue, even in the midst of the current turmoil, then the party will have solidified their gains beyond New York City and the surrounding area.
Even if Tedisco wins, the closeness of the contest leaves some Democrats to make a new calculus about the future of state politics.
If the Hudson Valley is a swing area, they say, then the party’s gains over the last couple of election cycles are likely to grow.
“Even though Jim is a longtime Republican Assemblyman, I think over it’s over on the Senate side that they are watching this race closely,” said Assembly Member Jack McEneny (D-Albany). “They are looking at for the implications for 2010, and the 20th congressional district is going to be a bellwether. If the Republicans don’t make it back next year, they may not make it back for a generation—or more.”
Many Republicans are blaming the state and county leadership for running Tedisco, noting that two popular Republicans, former Assembly minority leader State Sen. Betty Little (R-Clinton/Essex/Franklin) and 2006 gubernatorial candidate John Faso both offered themselves up for the seat—and both, unlike Tedisco, reside in the congressional district.
For an entire month of the seven-week race, Tedisco refused to say whether or not he was in favor of the federal stimulus package, and took a hammering from editorial boards and the Murphy campaign.
“It’s preposterous,” said one Republican, who, careful to mind Ronald Reagan’s 11th commandment—thou shall not speak ill of another Republican—asked that his name not be used. “He tried to be cute and play both sides. And it was a disaster. He is just incapable of competing at this level with this kind of scrutiny, his range of knowledge of issues has never been beyond a safe Assembly seat. Heads should roll regardless of the outcome. This race shouldn’t even be close.”
The race has statewide implications as well. Gillibrand has been a regular presence in campaign ads and sound bites. If Murphy wins, politicos will wonder whether the newly minted senator deserves credit for flipping the district, or if she merely showed up at the right moment when trends favored Democrats across the state. Her ascension to the upper chamber in Washington was predicated on the latter, but a Murphy win could give possible opponents—Republican and Democrat alike—reason to question this conventional wisdom.
As for that other statewide race in 2010—the one for executive mansion—observers say Paterson has a lot riding on the outcome in the 20th. After all, there would be no race had he not picked a relatively unknown congresswoman from a swing district. Should the Democrats lose the seat, that would be one more knock against the governor from within his own party ranks. And in what does not seem a coincidence, a possible 2010 opponent, former New York City mayor Rudolph Giuliani (R) spent a day campaigning for Tedisco and has recorded robocalls in support of the candidate.
Paterson has so far stayed out of it, but that could change, especially if the race continues to tighten.
“This absolutely matters to David Paterson personally,” said Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf. “Republicans need something to give them a bump. And the Democrats can’t be the king if they lose a piece of the kingdom.”
--
ABOVE: James Tedisco is hoping to re-activate Republicans voters in the 20th Congressional District. (left)
Businessman Scott Murphy is counting on supporters of Kirsten Gillibrand to align with him to hold the district for Democrats. (right)
The Democratic tide had finally started to ebb, with the governor’s sinking poll numbers and no way out of the desert of fiscal deficits in sight. A special congressional election in a Republican stronghold pitting a celebrity of the state party against a relative unknown was supposed to be an easy shot at flipping a seat and beginning their comeback.
But according to many upstate Republicans, win or lose, the race between Assembly Minority Leader James Tedisco (R-Saratoga/Schenectady) and businessman Scott Murphy to replace Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) has shown that a party in freefall has not hit bottom yet.
“It’s just clear that across the state Republican voters feel betrayed by the Republican party,” said one GOP insider. “Tedisco may still eke out a victory, but warts have been exposed. People still don’t know what our party represents.”
Republicans have a 70,000-registered-voter advantage in the 20th Congressional district, which curls around Albany and across ten counties upstate. But the district elected Gillibrand twice and came out for Barack Obama in November.
In 2006 and 2008, Republicans attributed Gillibrand’s wins to her opponent’s implosion and the albatross named George Bush that hung around the necks of all of their candidates.
Now, some are wondering if a district that has acted Democratic over a couple of cycles is not, in fact, Democratic. Murphy supporters are hoping so.
“If Scott wins, it just lays the groundwork for more folks to be comfortable with the Democratic Party,” said Doug Forand, the strategist who led the Democratic takeover of the State Senate last year. “It shows that Independents and Republicans who have moved away from the Republican party are joining the Democratic fold and are staying there.”
According to Stuart Rothenberg, publisher of the Rothenberg Political Report, the district is seeing more and more voters who are unaffiliated with either party vote for Democrats.
“I think we probably were mistaken in exaggerating the Republican nature of the district,” Rothenberg said. “If Murphy wins, it will change my thinking looking back, that under Kirsten Gillibrand it went from being a Republican-leaning district to a toss-up, and we are only realizing it now.”
The most recent poll gave a four-point advantage to Tedisco, outside of the margin of error but a far cry from the 21-point advantage the Republican had when the nominations were announced and a further narrowing of the 12-point gap from three weeks before.
Democrats are crowing that if one of their own is able to keep the seat blue, even in the midst of the current turmoil, then the party will have solidified their gains beyond New York City and the surrounding area.
Even if Tedisco wins, the closeness of the contest leaves some Democrats to make a new calculus about the future of state politics.
If the Hudson Valley is a swing area, they say, then the party’s gains over the last couple of election cycles are likely to grow.
“Even though Jim is a longtime Republican Assemblyman, I think over it’s over on the Senate side that they are watching this race closely,” said Assembly Member Jack McEneny (D-Albany). “They are looking at for the implications for 2010, and the 20th congressional district is going to be a bellwether. If the Republicans don’t make it back next year, they may not make it back for a generation—or more.”
Many Republicans are blaming the state and county leadership for running Tedisco, noting that two popular Republicans, former Assembly minority leader State Sen. Betty Little (R-Clinton/Essex/Franklin) and 2006 gubernatorial candidate John Faso both offered themselves up for the seat—and both, unlike Tedisco, reside in the congressional district.
For an entire month of the seven-week race, Tedisco refused to say whether or not he was in favor of the federal stimulus package, and took a hammering from editorial boards and the Murphy campaign.
“It’s preposterous,” said one Republican, who, careful to mind Ronald Reagan’s 11th commandment—thou shall not speak ill of another Republican—asked that his name not be used. “He tried to be cute and play both sides. And it was a disaster. He is just incapable of competing at this level with this kind of scrutiny, his range of knowledge of issues has never been beyond a safe Assembly seat. Heads should roll regardless of the outcome. This race shouldn’t even be close.”
The race has statewide implications as well. Gillibrand has been a regular presence in campaign ads and sound bites. If Murphy wins, politicos will wonder whether the newly minted senator deserves credit for flipping the district, or if she merely showed up at the right moment when trends favored Democrats across the state. Her ascension to the upper chamber in Washington was predicated on the latter, but a Murphy win could give possible opponents—Republican and Democrat alike—reason to question this conventional wisdom.
As for that other statewide race in 2010—the one for executive mansion—observers say Paterson has a lot riding on the outcome in the 20th. After all, there would be no race had he not picked a relatively unknown congresswoman from a swing district. Should the Democrats lose the seat, that would be one more knock against the governor from within his own party ranks. And in what does not seem a coincidence, a possible 2010 opponent, former New York City mayor Rudolph Giuliani (R) spent a day campaigning for Tedisco and has recorded robocalls in support of the candidate.
Paterson has so far stayed out of it, but that could change, especially if the race continues to tighten.
“This absolutely matters to David Paterson personally,” said Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf. “Republicans need something to give them a bump. And the Democrats can’t be the king if they lose a piece of the kingdom.”
--
ABOVE: James Tedisco is hoping to re-activate Republicans voters in the 20th Congressional District. (left)
Businessman Scott Murphy is counting on supporters of Kirsten Gillibrand to align with him to hold the district for Democrats. (right)
