"How do you pronounce his name?"

"Is it Greek?"

"This is the guy that's going to take Bruno's place?"

"Yes," said New York City Council Member Anthony Como (R-Queens), helping State Sen. Serphin Maltese (R-Queens) show Dean Skelos around the Glenridge Senior Center. "He already took it."

After 14 years as the assistant minority leader, the floor manager and loyal deputy to former State Sen. Joseph Bruno (R-Rensselaer), Skelos was combining campaigning with a victory lap.

"Senator Dean Skelos, from Nassau County, came to be with us today," Maltese said, leaning over one elderly woman. "He's going to keep the Senate majority for us."

Quickly picked and voted during those strange and surprising closing hours of the regular legislative session, Skelos has taken the reins of his conference and his party at the most difficult moment for Republicans anyone can remember. In 2006, for the first time since 1942, Democrats seized control of all six statewide offices, and in two special elections since, narrowed the already-dwindled margin of Republicans in their last stronghold, the State Senate. Barack Obama is well ahead of John McCain in the state, and despite Democrats' rocky recovery from the Eliot Spitzer mess, they are feeling very good about November.

At the Glenridge Center, though, Skelos is all smiles as he poses with Maltese for group shots with each of the tables-though that smile is more a slight raising of his tightened upper lip than Bruno's broad, gleaming flash of teeth.
A lot has been made of the differences between Skelos and Bruno. Skelos himself often puts things in terms of a personality contrast: Bruno is a little more extroverted, whereas he is a little more introverted. He says this every time he is asked, in nearly every brief interview he has given since becoming leader.

There is no doubting this. Look at the smile, the reserved manner. Skelos reveals little about making the transition to leader aside from his learning curve on time management. He is a quiet, shy man, reluctant to display himself or his thoughts to any but a tight inner circle of family, friends and advisers.

And that is perhaps his greatest strength, said former Sen. Alfonse D'Amato (R), who called the new majority leader "the man that people were continually fooled by, because he's not the most exuberant."

In a business where those talking the most and the loudest often win, Skelos moved quietly and effectively behind the scenes during his 14 years as Bruno's deputy and floor manager. Not everyone likes him or his methods, and there are those who privately tend to use more pungent de scri ptions than "Mean Dean." But no one who has worked with Skelos lacks respect for him or what he is capable of as leader.

Or what he might be capable of if he gets much of a chance. Between the Aug. 19 special session-and possibly more special sessions being considered by Gov. David Paterson (D) as he searches for ways to close the expanding budget gap-and overseeing a hurried retooling of the Senate Republican Campaign Committee (SRCC), these will be busy months for the new temporary president of the Senate.

How temporary depends on what he is able to actually do with the legacy Bruno left him.

Skelos grew up in Rockville Center, in the heart of Nassau County. He went to school in Rockville Center, practiced law in Rockville Center and has represented Rockville Center, first in the Assembly, then in the Senate, for all but two of the past 28 years. He is, in many ways, an embodiment of the village where his grandparents settled, and now, one of its more accomplished sons.

This is never far from his mind.

"Obviously, when you live in a community your whole life, the fabric of it is within you," he said, sitting behind his desk at his district office.

So far, Skelos has resisted redecorating. The reception area is modest, with old furniture and walls covered in plaques and group photos of the full Senate. His personal office at the back has been redone more recently, but the air conditioning system has not, and it blows loudly through its metal cover.

He meets with constituents here, or runs into them on their way up to the elevated tracks at the Long Island Rail Road station across the street; property tax reform has been a hot topic for years. He and just about every politician on Long Island have talked about changing the current system for years, but so far to no avail.

Under Bruno, the Senate passed several versions of the STOP program, which would enable school districts to phase out school property taxes and put several programs in place to restore by the state. Without the Assembly or governor on board, none of these went very far. Bruno moved on to other issues.

As a senator from Nassau County, where property taxes are particularly high, Skelos did not. And immediately upon becoming leader, he made clear that he would lead the conference to finally act. Property tax reform, he said, was his number one, two and three on the agenda.

But he resists calling this a major shift for the conference.

"We've passed numerous pieces of legislation, so it's not necessarily something that's totally new to our conference. But it's reached the crescendo where the public is demanding that something be done," he said.

Actually getting something done will be tricky. In addition to the complex policy being debated, there are the complex political concerns. Skelos must navigate them both, and all the various Albany players involved, in an election year when the stakes in Senate races around the state could not be higher.
First comes the policy. 

Skelos is not deterred by the skeptics who say a solution is beyond Albany's grasp. Nor is he lacking in ambition: he expects a property tax cap to pass as part of a legislative package aimed to reshape the often-criticized but rarely changed, structure of government in New York.

"We're looking at mandate relief. We're looking at the whole issue of assessment, reassessment. We're looking at consolidation incentives. We're looking at a whole slew of things to put in this bill," Skelos said.

So far, there has only been serious public discussion about the cap. Skelos said he and the governor are working together in an effort to convince Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver (D-Manhattan) to negotiate a compromise. That Silver has not already, Skelos said, demonstrates what he believes is Silver's lack of understanding for the problem, given that he lives in New York City.

"The governor and I are seeing eye-to-eye, so I'm hopeful that the speaker begins to understand. Perhaps coming from the city, where the property taxes are not that high, he may not understand how it's choking people outside of the city," Skelos said. "I'm hopeful he will talk to some of his members in suburban and rural communities and get a better idea of how hard it is for people to make ends meet."

Not surprisingly, Silver's office rejects this explanation of the speaker's resistance.

"Dean Skelos has been going around the state saying that Shelly Silver has said a property tax cap is dead on arrival," said Silver spokesman Daniel Weiller. "That's absolutely inaccurate. His position on a property tax cap is that he supports it, but only if there are restrictions in place to ensure that children around the state receive a quality education."

For the first time in 14 years, Bruno, seemingly the only man who could read Silver's famously mysterious rhythms, will not be there. To those who believe this puts the new majority leader at a disadvantage as the horse-trading and stonewalling begin, Skelos begs to differ. Silver may be the veteran negotiator, but Skelos says he knows a lot more about Silver's methods than Silver knows about his.

"I think he's got to figure out what's going on in my head," Skelos said. "I've been observing him in the room. He's never observed me yet."

After so many years as leader, Bruno was the embodiment of the Senate Republicans. To many Democrats, his surprise departure in the closing days was an indication that he lacked confidence in the Republicans' chances of keeping the Senate, and wanted to go out on top.

"It's like a team losing their starting quarterback as they head into the playoffs," said State Sen. Eric Schneiderman (D-Manhattan/Bronx).

However, citing several polls by Senate Democrats, Schneiderman suggested that the leadership change may actually help Republican candidates who might otherwise have been dragged down by their association with Bruno.

"He was very much associated with gridlock," Schneiderman said. "In some of the districts, he polled worse than Shelly Silver. Joe had a great following in the Capitol, but I'm not sure he was doing them that much good on the campaign trail."

But overall, the change will help Democratic efforts, said State Sen. Antoine Thompson (D-Erie/Niagara), the co-chair of his conference's campaign effort.

"I think that in terms of people seeing change on the horizon, more people recognize it now," he said.

Skelos has been moving quickly to present the case for Republicans staying in power. Using Silver's resistance to a property tax cap as a prime example, he said the Senate must stay Republican so he and his members can protect the interests of suburban and rural New Yorkers, and provide a check on partisan power in a state where every other Albany leader is a Democrat, and all, but Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli, live in Manhattan.

Though he stopped short of saying so directly, Skelos seemed to think that Paterson agrees.

"You'd have to ask him that question," Skelos said, "but he also understands that we've been a good partner with him and that we've governed well with him and that we represent balance in the state."

Whatever Skelos, or even Paterson, might want, Senate Democrats believe they will take the majority this year, or by 2010 at latest. Just as demographics and voting trends have allowed them to steadily chip away at the GOP majority since 2002, it is only matter of time, they say, until they control the chamber.

Skelos shrugged.

"They've been saying that for the 24 years I've been in the Senate. And they've been probably saying that for 20 years before that," he said.

Not that he is sitting back and gloating. Shortly after coming onto his new job, Skelos restructured the SRCC staff and began a review of all strategic decisions and commitments.

Whereas Bruno's plan was mostly defensive, to have popular longtime incumbents hold on to their districts and do whatever he could until this more Democratic-friendly moment in state politics passed. Skelos rejected this strategy.
"We're analyzing all the different districts," he said. "We see opportunities to pick up seats."

He spoke confidently about retaining the seats of Bruno and retiring State Sen. Mary Lou Rath (R-Erie/Genesee), as well as those of top Democratic targets, like Maltese.

"Right there, you've started with 32, and I think we have many opportunities throughout the state to win back seats," he said.

Though he did not name favorites, the seats of Craig Johnson (D-Nassau) and Darrel Aubertine (D-Oswego/Lewis/St. Lawrence)-both of which were Republican for decades and were body-blow special election losses in the last 18 months-seem a top priority.

What happens in the property tax debate could help determine the outcomes.

In an election year when the governor is looking at possible budget cuts, leading the charge to cap taxes could be an appealing talking point for vulnerable Republican incumbents and aspiring candidates alike, especially in marginal districts where property taxes are high.

Skelos acknowledged this, though he treaded carefully when discussing property tax reform as a political issue which could help Senate Republicans in the fall.

"I think it's positive for the taxpayers," he said. "Each one of us individually has done wonderful things in our districts. I think our records alone will be received very positively."

But insisting on a cap could prove a liability as well. Bruno avoided the issue in part because so many of the state's powerful labor leaders were aligned against a cap, and union endorsements and campaign cash were key to Bruno's more defensive SRCC approach.

Now, said New York State United Teachers (NYSUT) President Richard Iannuzzi, Skelos risks losing his union and others.


"A vote for the property tax cap is clearly going to have an impact on our endorsements, and how it affects our position on the majority is too early to tell," he said. "But there's no question in my mind that I expect my local leaders to come to Albany at the time of our endorsement conference and expect to know exactly how senators and Assembly members from both parties view this particular issue."

NYSUT endorsement decisions are scheduled for the week of August 11. However, Iannuzzi said the union is considering withholding decisions on endorsements until they see how the votes are cast in the property tax debate, or possibly reconsidering them after the floor vote.

"Our responsibility here is to our members, and what's in the best interests of the schools that they work in," Iannuzzi said. "If, as a consequence of that, the Senate flips or the current majority grows-we're not making our decisions based on who should be or shouldn't be in the majority."

He urged Skelos to bend on the issue, perhaps settling for a compromise like the so-called "circuit-breaker," which would limit the percentage of income which people could be taxed on their property. If he does not, Iannuzzi warned that Skelos and the Senate Republicans will find themselves at odds with the very same labor forces which have proved invaluable friends in the past.

"It's not only a teacher issue," Iannuzzi said. "It's a school district issue. Many other unions have members who work in school districts."

Stephen Madarasz, communications director for the Civil Service Employees Association (CSEA), said his union agrees, and will also be looking for Skelos to abandon his quest for a cap.  

"Whether one issue would be a threshold issue-I don't think we would necessarily look at that, because we have so many disparate interests in CSEA," he said, while adding the warning, "alternatives that don't get embraced-certainly that can strain a relationship."

The CSEA endorsements will be made by union's statewide political action committee with input from the local level. Traditionally, the leadership has guided the union to backing Senate Republicans, and as of now, Madarasz expects it will again.

But maybe not.

"We're looking at a very fluid situation," he said. "It's certainly a challenging time for us and a challenging time for the state."

Skelos treaded carefully in discussing the relationship between the unions and the Republican conference.
"We're not looking to create a problem," he said, insisting that his goal is to find some way to lower property taxes without endangering the quality of education.

He urged NYSUT and other unions to think about the bigger picture, of the many other collaborations between the Senate Republicans and labor interests over the years, whatever the final version of property tax reform is.

"I don't think there has to be a real disagreement, but sometimes you do have disagreements in public policy," he said. "I think they also have to recognize that it's been the Senate majority that has insisted on the record increases in education that have occurred throughout the state. So you don't necessarily agree on everything, but it doesn't mean you become enemies."

There are three months until Election Day. They are sure to be difficult and exhausting.

If he loses the majority, things will be much, much different. Democrats anticipate that several older Republican senators will retire if suddenly in the minority, rather than deal with moving offices, selective staff layoffs and personal pay cuts that come with the loss of their gavels. One elected official who knows Skelos well even suggested that he might join them in quitting. Vacancies would in turn prompt a slew of special elections, and Democrats believe they will have ample opportunities to expand their margin. The Republicans would be shut out of state government, and Skelos' tenure as majority leader would be a blip. Meanwhile, he could face an internal coup from those in the conference looking to make him the scapegoat. At best, he would get to be the first Republican minority leader in decades, the head of a thinned and dejected conference. 

If Skelos retains the majority, he will be a Republican hero, the man who somehow kept his party alive when few held out any hope. By preserving his 32 seats or somehow managing to add to them, he will have a few months to identify some real policy priorities and, with a friend in the governor, perhaps be able to turn them into law. Sure, the Democrats will be gunning for him again in 2010, but this time, he will have time to really define the SRCC approach from the start of the cycle. He will be able to make the kind of intense candidate recruitment effort which Bruno largely ignored.

Most people expect things to go one way. Skelos is scrambling to make sure they go the other.

As friends and enemies agree, the new majority leader is aggressive and intensely partisan, hardworking and pragmatic. But according to Norman Adler, a political consultant who has advised Skelos on his individual races for the past six years, the new majority leader may be able to combine all these traits to be something else: surprising. Or, at least, just surprising enough.

"While he may not be able to make a silk purse out of sow's ear here," Adler said, "he may be able to make a hell of a good pig leather purse."